Unfortunately, that is not true of all environments. Many large organizations such as governments and big corporations will not allow their users to install ANY plugins to their browsers for security reasons. A team of testers has to examine every piece of software installed on the network and approve it. Getting variances for a particular application is beyond most people's level of bureaucratic tolerance. And since providing their employees access to sites like Youtube is pretty low on these organizations' radar, a Flash player is not something that it is easy to get passed as an accepted piece of software unless they have purchased other software that requires it. And THAT is unlikely because developing software for large organizations that requires Flash causes this major friction point for sales. For Flash, it is a vicious circle.

Given how much development is paid for by large organizations, I think it unlikely any RIA technology will become dominant unless it is embedded in something else. That means SilverLight embedded in the browser with the most market share; JavaFX embedded in the JRE since many of these organizations see Java as mission critical; or Ajax, support for which is already embedded into existing browsers. Of these, Ajax is the only technology that is currently generally available within these large organizations.

Just thought I'd offer another perspective.

Grzegorz Kossakowski wrote:
I'm taking installation issues into consideration but if your application is 
worth downloading and
installing some VM people will do it. As long as it's matter of one-click 
installation people will
do it even if they will have to go for a five minutes break caused by download 
size.

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