As I did those updates..

well explained, thx.

But this then seems to be a more general problem of how we want to
support a switch an application from one ESR/LTS release if it is EOL to
the next.

not terribly differently than others -- with an abundance of end-user education 
and caution?

tbird version update -- across ESLs or not -- breaking one's install, or eating 
one's mailstore, is not _automatically_ a universal fact

for tbird, it's more often an issue specific to one's system; not uncommmonly, your 
config &/or your addons.

for other ppl, the upgrade's been working fine in production for awhile now 
with upstream releases, with early fedora tbird builds, and now the fedora 
release pkgs.
for me, the lack of a long-overdue v102 update was 'costing' much more than not 
...

on F36, thunderbird packages are still available in two major versions

        dnf list --showduplicates thunderbird
                Last metadata expiration check: 0:01:09 ago on Sat 03 Sep 2022 
07:36:45 AM EDT.
                Available Packages
                thunderbird.x86_64                                91.7.0-1.fc36 
                                 fedora
                thunderbird.x86_64                                
102.2.1-1.fc36                                 updates

older version's still easily installed,

        dnf install thunderbird-91.7.0-1.fc36.x86_64

historical versions are still available, and quite easily installed & 
functional, from

        https://www.thunderbird.net/en-US/thunderbird/releases/

ESL or not, how exactly was thunderbird 102 'pushed' to ppl's systems?

did they

        enable autoupdates?

or,

        click to allow the update?

if tbird's a critical update for 'you', you

        do have backups of your tbird configs & mailstores?
        keep up to date with thunderbird version progress/news/chengelogs/notes?
        remembered that addons are not tbird or fedora issues, and checked 
current/future compatibility of your addons, as well as whether they're well 
maintained?
        communicated issues/bugs/etc to the respective projects?

and

        have waited to update until after checking/verifying that it works for 
you?

and, in case none of that was done, since firefox/tbird major-version update 
issues _are_ historically well-known (if unfortunate), you froze version 
upgrades of tbird on your system

        https://dnf-plugins-core.readthedocs.io/en/latest/versionlock.html

to make sure that you're never surprised by an update you don't want/expect?

my $0.02.
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