On Fri, Apr 26, 2024 at 08:20:43PM +0200, Miroslav Suchý wrote: > Graph of these data with the burndown chart: > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QVMEzXWML-6_Mrlln02axFAaRKCQ8zE807rpCjus-8s/edit?usp=sharing [...] > New projection when we will be finished is 2025-04-06 (+5 days from last > report). Pure linear approximation.
Just eyeballing the prediction graph in the Google doc, it looks like the linear approximation is distorted by the big drop in "non-trivial" last September. And, the slope for "converted" is pretty steep before that, but significantly flatter after. I think this is making the prediction a little too optimistic. If we extrapolate linearly just from 2023-09-29 on, that gives an end-date of 2026-02-22. And linearly is probably optimistic too, given the classic "last 10% is 90% of the time" thing. On the other hand, if we have some other big conversion efforts (like a virtual hackfest or something), maybe factoring in a big jump _is_ right. -- Matthew Miller <mat...@fedoraproject.org> Fedora Project Leader -- _______________________________________________ devel mailing list -- devel@lists.fedoraproject.org To unsubscribe send an email to devel-le...@lists.fedoraproject.org Fedora Code of Conduct: https://docs.fedoraproject.org/en-US/project/code-of-conduct/ List Guidelines: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Mailing_list_guidelines List Archives: https://lists.fedoraproject.org/archives/list/devel@lists.fedoraproject.org Do not reply to spam, report it: https://pagure.io/fedora-infrastructure/new_issue
