Am Dienstag, 30. August 2011, 01:08:16 schrieb Arne Babenhauserheide:
> 5) solution: count each SSK as only
>       average_SSK_success_rate * data_to_transfer_on_success.

Some more data: 

chances of having at least this many successful transfers for 40 SSKs with a 
mean success rate of 16%: 

for i in {0..16}; do echo $i $(./spielfaehig.py 0.16 40 $i); done

    0 1.0
    1 0.999064224991
    2 0.99193451064
    3 0.965452714478
    4 0.901560126912
    5 0.788987472629
    6 0.634602118184
    7 0.463062835467
    8 0.304359825607
    9 0.179664603573
    10 0.0952149293922
    11 0.0453494074947
    12 0.0194452402752
    13 0.00752109980912
    14 0.0026291447461
    15 0.000832100029072
    16 0.00023879002726

what this means: if a SSK has a mean success rate of 0.16, then using 0.25 as 
value makes sure that 95% of the possible cases don?t exhaust the bandwidth. 
We then use only 64% of the bandwidth on average, though. With 0.2, we?d get 
68% of the possible distributions safe and use 80% of bandwidth on average.

Note: this is just a binomial spread: 

from math import factorial
fac = factorial
def n?k(n, k): 
   if k > n: return 0
   return fac(n) / (fac(k)*fac(n-k))

def binom(p, n, k): 
   return n?k(n, k) * p** k * (1-p)**(n-k)

def spielf?hig(p, n, min_spieler): 
   return sum([binom(p, n, k) for k in range(min_spieler, n+1)])


? USK at 6~ZDYdvAgMoUfG6M5Kwi7SQqyS-
gTcyFeaNN1Pf3FvY,OSOT4OEeg4xyYnwcGECZUX6~lnmYrZsz05Km7G7bvOQ,AQACAAE/bab/9/Content-
D426DC7.html


Best wishes, 
Arne
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