On Tuesday, 7 October 2014 at 23:49:37 UTC, Timon Gehr wrote:
On 10/08/2014 12:10 AM, Nick Sabalausky wrote:
On 10/07/2014 06:47 AM, "Ola Fosheim =?UTF-8?B?R3LDuHN0YWQi?=
<[email protected]>" wrote:
On Tuesday, 7 October 2014 at 08:19:15 UTC, Nick Sabalausky
What is this reason?
This one:
Result of coin tossing is independent at any current attempt. It
does not depend of past or future results. Probability is 0.5
On the other hand, obtaining a series with 100 heads in a row is
very small (exactly because of the independence).
Obtaining a series with 101 heads in a row is even smaller, so
people will assume that the 101 tossing should probably give a
"tails".
But they forget that the probability of a 101 series where first
100 are heads and the 101 is tails is exactly *the same* as the
probability of a 101 series of heads.
They compare the probability of a 101 series of heads with the
probability of a series of 100 heads instead of comparing it
against a series with first 100 heads and the 101rd being a tail.
It is the bias choice (we have tendency to compare things that
are easier - not more pertinent - to compare).
