Comming back to the original point again, Steve's post is interesting but I think it can be more plainly put:
Our field will be less impacted in 2008 downturn then it was in 2001 downturn, because the 2001 downturn was directly tech related and the 2008 downturn is not. Details: 2001 collapse was Tech related, impacting mainly Internet ".com" companies and companies that supported ".coms". This is our industry, as most of us worked in ".coms" or similarly Internet based co.s, and we were hit incredibly hard. The 2001 collapse was based on ridiculous valuations for companies, many with no solid business model to ever justify these valuations. Bankers "pumped and dumped" Tech IPO's and made lots of $$$. The rest of the economy wasn't nearly as effected, hence the NASDAQ, (tech heavy), dropped from 5500 to 1500 in a period of months, and the Dow, (more diversified), went from 10,500 to 10,250, (not sure about exact #'s but they're close). The 2008 collapse is Real Estate and Financial Services related. New loan products were introduced, (CDO's, etc), allowing a large international pool of investors to flood the US with cash. This went on for 8 or so years, until the underlying assets, (often houses), became so ridiculously overpriced, that no one was willing to pretend the values would keep rising, and the whole house of cards fell down. The 2008 collapse will affect a much larger market then just the Tech sector, as all Credit Markets are hit. All markets will tighten, but Tech will not be singled out. (Note the scale of the credit market crisis could shift balances of power, causing unforeseen havoc - keep in mind all US Stock Markets are worth less then 1/2 of US Credit Markets). As far as the international markets go, they'll be hit as well, but many emerging markets are much more independent now, and so won't be as adversely impacted by a US downturn. The 2008 downturn will not affect our industry as deeply as 2001, it's not as directly related to tech. Also we're on the leading edge for commerce, entertainment, and have a thumb in virtually all markets, this is not going to stop, although it will probably slow down. Keeping all this in mind, 2001 was like the great depression for Tech, 2008 will still probably suck :( -- Joseph Rich Rogan President UX/UI Inc. http://www.jrrogan.com ________________________________________________________________ Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ....... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe ................ http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines ............ http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .................. http://www.ixda.org/help
