Thanks Doug! Indeed, identifying important relevant factors and coming up with estimates and corresponding probabilities for innovation/products and services that will not exist for a number of years, is an interesting challenge! Won't you join us in trying to figure that out? :)
On Tue, Jan 20, 2009 at 3:39 PM, Anderson, Douglas W. < [email protected]> wrote: > > Hi Christine, > > Your description of a risk assessment model sounds like an echo from my > business school days. Yes, such models are commonly used in business > planning. > > The basic elements include the relevant external economic/social context > and internal (company or foundation) conditions at discrete intervals (e.g. > years, quarters, or months) over the period of time for which you are > planning. Explore the best- and worst-case scenarios for the world and the > foundation within the world. Select a most-likely scenario or several likely > scenarios within the best-to-worst range. Attach probabilities to the > various scenarios, summing to 100%. Quantify as many of the relevant > characteristics of the world and the foundation (specifically costs and > revenues related to the project, which might be derived from other > characteristics) as you sensibly can for each scenario. Calculate the > financial results at the end of each time interval for each scenario and > apply the corresponding probability. Sum those products for each time > interval. Apply some discount rate (interest rate, if you will) to come up > with a present value for the set of sums. > > That tells you what the project is hypothetically worth today. If you are > comparing alternative projects, do this for each project using the same > external factors and probabilities for each. Compare the hypothetical values > of the projects. > > The mechanics are easily handled in Excel or your spreadsheet of choice. > The real challenge is identifying the important relevant factors and coming > up with estimates and corresponding probabilities. That part can be very > stimulating though, especially as a collaboration. > > FWIW, > Doug Anderson > > > Original message: > Date: Mon, 19 Jan 2009 14:02:40 -0600 > From: christine chastain <[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [IxDA Discuss] How many alternatives, concepts, or > sketches are enough? > To: Chauncey Wilson <[email protected]> > Cc: [email protected] > Message-ID: > <[email protected]> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 > > Here's the thing, though - this is a great start but I still don't see it > linked to risk assessment and ultimately the bottom line...I know, what > every designer/design researcher/innovator hates to hear... > > But, once again, I'm in the position of having to show, to the board of > directors of a large non-profit foundation, how our budget will be used to > support numerous platforms, under which reside numerous projects/concepts. > Essentially, they would love to hear that one or another idea (in this > case, > the prioritization has already been made, based on collective criteria) > will > be a return on investment and I have no way, beyond presenting a business > case study and linking concepts to future portfolio efforts, to provide > that > information. What I really need is a risk assessment/predictive model that > looks at a variety of future scenarios and takes into account current and > future business state/future general population need, etc. Has anyone heard > of anything like that? > ________________________________________________________________ Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ....... [email protected] Unsubscribe ................ http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines ............ http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .................. http://www.ixda.org/help
