I hate to break it to you but we're already regulated: PCI, SOX, FERPA, HIPPA.

Regulation happens as a reaction to a problem.  When we screw up (or
are forced to screw up by management that is stupid about IT) bad
things happen.  The remedy is regulation.

If you mean "when will there be a 'license to sysadmin' required to do
our work?"  I don't think it will ever happen; we'll just all be in an
industry that is regulated for one reason or another.

"How can we prevent this?"

The medical profession prevents it by creating their own system of
self-regulation.  A surgeon can do any kind of surgery but might be
"board certified" in certain procedures.  The board sets up standards
and/or best practices.  In most states it is illegal to do surgery
that you aren't board certified for; in other states it is just
unethical but not illegal (which is why quacks are drawn to certain
states).

So, following that model we could establish best practices and offer
certifications based on them.  They wouldn't be vendor-specific,
they'd be like good hygiene: "irreplaceable data should be backed up",
"accounts should be centrally administered", "more than 1 person
should know an admin password", and so on.  I pick those examples
because they're pretty "duh! obvious!" and yet there are famous
failures where they were violated:

http://techcrunch.com/2009/01/03/journalspace-drama-all-data-lost-without-backup-company-deadpooled/
http://infosecindia.com/2011/04/06/ex-employee-uses-secret-account-to-hack-into-gucci-systems/
http://articles.sfgate.com/2008-07-15/bay-area/17171009_1_computer-network-computer-system-access

Tom

-- 
See you in Boston!
Dec 4-9, Boston, Usenix LISA, www.usenix.org/event/lisa11
Dec 4-5, Boston, ACM CHIMIT, chimit.acm.org
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