>What I was originally assuming is that (a) a rise or fall in the price of
>gold generally reflects a rise or fall in demand for gold and (b) a rise or
>fall in the circulation of e-gold generally reflects a rise or fall in
>demand for e-gold and (c) comparing the price of gold to the circulation of
>e-gold is therefore a legitimate way to compare (not to correlate, not to
>link, but simply to compare) the demand for gold to the demand for e-gold.
>And all I want to know at this point is: Is there something wrong with that
>syllogism?




Quite simply Julian, there have historcally been a number of "spikes" 
in the price of gold, with NO matching movement (either way) in 
e-gold # of bars.

Conversely, there have been numerous spikes in the # of bars, with NO 
matching movement in the price of gold.

Honest, that's the end of the story!

You know .. enlightenment .. scientific method .. all that! :)

If you are saying "the recent spike in NOB correlates with the recent 
spike in POG," that is Wrong, simply because historically there is no 
such correlation.

(If there WAS such a correlation, Julian, this email would be saying 
"yes, you're right, you can see there is a correlation by looking at 
these examples")


You have to understand I agree with you that BY ALL MEANS it's a 
negative (well a small negative anyway) for e-gold that 5 bars are 
out.  If 50 bars end up going out, that would suck for egold!

But quite simply there has never been a correlation between NOB and POG.

I think there are more obvious possible "causes" for the small drop 
in the NOB ...

(*) Sept 11 events

(*) changes with e-gold's storage/whatever arrangements

(*) all the legal business, maybe?


Really, there's no historic correlation between NOB and POG!!!  Honest!

Moreover, you should be saying "Hmmm ... it appears we CAN'T blame 
the recent drop in NOB in the recent spike in POG, as historically 
there is no correlation, hence: what should we blame it on?"

Best JPM!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
http://capitalismmagazine.com/2001/september/rp_conquer_savages.htm
http://www.objectivistcenter.org/pubs/rb_unilateral_moral_disarmament.asp


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