I realize that this interesting thread (which I have mostly just =
skimmed) has been largely in search of hard data on =
extinctions/extirpations.

But for the longer-term view, I keep thinking of that paper (I'm sure =
someone can supply the reference) that somehow used species-area curves =
for different-sized portions of the globe in order to suggest what the =
planet's ultimate species richness would be if species' distributions =
were homogenized so that "everything occurs everywhere". The prediction =
was, of course, shocking. A major reason that global species richness is =
as high as it is, is that different species occur in different areas.

While we can debate the quality of evidence, and it is certainly =
worthwhile to study the mechanisms involved, does anyone doubt that the =
truly long-term result of the continued spread of exotics will be many =
extinctions?

Dave Whitacre

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