There was a really wonderful special issue of the journal Daedalus in
1996 (it was supposed to come out as a book, subsequently, and may
have, for all I know), titled "The Liberation of the Environment." A
very, very smart bit of speculative analysis and back-of-the-envelope
forecasting. The bibliography for that is appended below.
The punch line, as I took it, is that we can live well, even better
than we do today, using way, way less stuff (land, raw materials,
energy) than we currently do.
Conservation is virtually instantaneous in its effect. Anybody watch
the gas prices soar? Sure, sure, complex story and all the rest of
that. But it would involve a refutation of mechanical physics to
disregard the fact that demand for fuel shot up between 1998 and 2004
(at least...that's as long as I followed the data). In 1998,
"trucks" were 15% of new car sales. In 2004, SUVs were 55% of new
car sales. you can fudge the numbers however you like, but the fleet
fuel economy for the nation went out the window that day. And it was
written in stone that the prices of gasoline would shoot through the
ceiling any day now. And they did. If we could use eminent domain
to seize every gas guzzler out there, reasonably defined, our "oil
dependence" problem would suddenly unhappen.
Conservation, and intelligence in choosing alternative technologies
are the calls for the day, it seems to me, and no one is making that
case persuasively. As usual, the diatribists have the day.
Cheers,
-
Ashwani
Vasishth [EMAIL PROTECTED] (818) 677-6137
http://www.csun.edu/~vasishth/
http://www.myspace.com/ashwanivasishth
* * *
Bibliography: The Liberation of the Environment
Special Issue of Daedalus, v125n3 (1996)
Ausubel, Jesse H. 1996. "The Liberation of the Environment,"
Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 1-17. [Ausubel argues that
well-established trajectories that raise the efficiency with which
people use energy, land, water and materials can cut pollution and
leave more soil unturned. In altering the landscape so dramatically,
humans have secured a new insecurity in that more has been
transformed than is needed or prudent.]
Grubler, Arnulf. 1996. "Time for a Change: On the Patterns of
Diffusion of Innovation," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 19-42.
[Grubler discusses the temporal patterns of the diffusion of
technological innovations and what these patterns may imply for the
future of the human environment. Key technologies that can be
envisioned to raise the quality of the environment must probably
await the second half of the 21st century to become widespread and
influential.]
Kates, Robert W. 1996. "Population, Technology, and the Human
Environment: A Thread Through Time," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996):
43-71. [Kates employs a sequence of four temporal frames--ages,
millenia, centuries and decades--to examine the dynamics of
population, resources and technology. It appears that the Earth is
about halfway in numbers into the third great population surge.]
Waggoner, Paul E. 1996. "How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare
For Nature?" Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 73-93. [Waggoner
discusses how much land ten billion people can spare for nature. If
people keep eating and multiplying and farmers keep tilling and
harvesting as they do now, the imperative of food will take another
tenth of the land away from nature.]
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa. 1996. "Freeing Energy From Carbon," Daedalus,
v125n3 (Summer 1996): 95-112. [Nakicenovic discusses the large
secular decreases in energy requirements per unit of economic output
that have been achieved throughout the world. The emissions of
carbon dioxide from energy systems have also decreased per unit of
energy consumed]
Schipper, Lee. 1996. "Life-Styles and the Environment: The Case of
Energy," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 113-138. [Schipper argues
that the precise nature of the demands for services that humans
collectively create increasingly shape environmental change.
Consumers and their lifestyles arbitrate the quality of the human
environment.]
Ausubel, Jesse H. & Cesare Marchetti. 1996. "Elektron: Electrical
Systems In Retrospect and Prospect," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996):
139-169. [Electricity was one of the first fields of research in
which the US assumed a leading role. The long economic cycles that
seem to affect all parts of social and economic life constitute a
good frame of reference for the development of the electrical system
in terms of technology, territorial penetration, birth and death of
enterprises and intensity of use.]
Wernick, Iddo K. & Robert Herman & Shekhar Govind & Jesse H. Ausubel.
1996. "Materialization and Dematerialzation: Measures and Trends,"
Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 171-198. [Wernick et al report
analyses of materialization and dematerialization during the 20th
century. Dematerialization refers to the absolute or relative
reduction in the quantity of materials required to serve economic
functions. Substantial progress has been made over the last century
in decoupling economic growth and well-being from increasing primary
energy use through increased efficiency.]
Frosch, Robert A. 1996. "Toward the End of Waste: Reflections On A
New Ecology of Industry," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 199-212.
[Frosch rethinks the ecology of industry as a problem in the present
and ponders the future flows of materials within and among
industries. Reductions in industrial waste need to occur.]
Meyer-Abich, Klaus Michael. 1996. "Humans In Nature: Toward A
Physiocentric Philosophy," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 213-234.
[Meyer-Abich explores the cultural and conceptual history of nature
in the Western tradition and the reasons and chance for a shift
toward a philosophy of nature centered in nature. Alexander von
Humboldt, Francis Bacon and Immanuel Kant's views on nature are
discussed.]
Starr, Chauncey. 1996. "Sustaining the Human Environment: The Next
Two Hundred Years," Daedalus, v125n3 (Summer 1996): 235-253. [Starr
discusses habitability, sustainability and quality of life for people
in the next 200 years based on population growth, water and food
availability and energy use. There are a number of threats to a
sustainable world of the future.]
