Hi Bill -- Just a few quick thoughts --
First, I don't believe that Duncan was asserting value judgements about the "goodness" of industrial civilization. In Section 7 he quotes Winteringham (In W.'s book Energy and the Environment) to show why energy use per capita is "the simplest and most reliable indicator of the level of development of technology-based society." This is an empirical analysis, not a value judgement. Combine that with the quotation by Hoyle that advanced, technology-based civlization is a one-shot deal, impossible to repeat in planetary history (see Section 8), and Duncan theorizes that we simply do not have time or resources remaining to undo our mistakes and re-arrive at a similar, but more advanced civilization (my interpretation). With regards to the overpopulation of humans on the planet, the point is made that the people are already here, yet the resources to support them will rapidly diminish, leading to the likely unpleasant deaths of large numbers of humans. Resource wars are implied, in my view, not unlike what we are seeing in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. (in my opinion). As I see it, we could have done it right, but we didn't. And look at the Chinese right now -- who surely know much of the history of modern civilization (in Europe and the U.S.) and the harmfulness of industrial pollution by coal, etc., and who are apparently also failing to learn from history and creating the same old problems created in the west in the early period of western industrial development. And despite the evidence of the disastrous future impacts of global climate change, we still see the U.S. government failing to adopt the relatively minimal Kyoto protocols while looking at China and India and worrying that they are going to "get away" with duplicating our own past behaviors, as if we have changed and they must, too. In short, the U.S. appears to be leading the world to disaster, failing to address our failures at the appropriate level of behavior alteration, and also saber-rattling as if we want to hog the remaining resources and deprive our enemies and competitors of them as the sands in the time clock of history dwindle. By the way, there is a new article available online reporting a Government Accounting Office report on the Peak Oil situation and the belated attempts by a few government officials to take note of the seriousness of that situation. Here is a link to the article: http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/033007A.shtml Duncan's report is not a value judgement, but an analysis of history leading to a prediction of how history will play out in the few decades ahead, and I think his arguments are quite persuasive, though depressing. But even before I heard of Duncan I knew we were in big trouble. Stan Moore San Geronimo, CA [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________________________ i'm making a difference. Make every IM count for the cause of your choice. Join Now. http://clk.atdmt.com/MSN/go/msnnkwme0080000001msn/direct/01/?href=http://im.live.com/messenger/im/home/?source=hmtagline
