The New Scientist Editorial that (re) initiated this Discussion thread
had the following to say about growth:
"This is the logic of free-market capitalism: the economy must grow
continuously or face an unpalatable collapse."
This facet of our economy has always been a bit of a mystery to me.
You are either forever growing; otherwise you face collapse. In the
current system (which we may characterize as socialist / capitalist
after the bail out of money losing and still doomed companies), it
seems "steady state" cannot work.
It seems to me that this aspect of the economy is the Achilles heel of
any attempt to mitigate carbon emissions, manage fisheries
effectively, or achieve any number of other desirable ecological
outcomes. Tony Blair said it best when he stated that "there is a
mismatch in timing between the environmental and electoral impact".
In simple terms, a politician (even Obama) will always choose to grow
now and pay later. The penalty for not doing so is collapse.
But these sad facts beg some serious questions that I have been trying
to answer in vain. Maybe you , dear Ecologgers, can offer some answers:
1. Why does the globalized economy have to grow or collapse; that is,
what are the mechanics that dictate it.
2. What would happen if the global economy grew at, say, 0.5 percent
for 1, 5, 10, or 20 years?
3. is there a way to get to a steady state economy from where we are?
That is can we decouple social and political stability from growth?
I have some thoughts on this that involve the economic multiplier
effect, which is a positive feedback that reinforces the effects of
adding or subtracting money form the economy. But surely it has to be
more complex than that?
Interestingly, I have been exploring the economic literature (I know,
I know, it's horrific, but someone has to do it!). Turns out that
economists may know a good deal less about economic growht than one
might have imagined. Not so surprisingly, the literature appears to
concentrate on understanding the drivers of growth or how to achieve
more of it. I have searched in vain for literature describing in
detail the consequences of failing to grow.....
Ciaou,
Andy Park
