Paul, The reason that global mean temperature appears flat since 1998 is that these data have been cherry-picked specifically to deny climate change. 1998 was an extraordinarily anomalous year and is a favorite arbitrary baseline for climate deniers. Go back even to 1997 and the temperature line regains its positive slope. Short-term stability or even temperature declines do not contradict the long-term warming trend. In fact, you damn your conclusion with your own words: " So we could be potentially be at the same point on that graph as we were in 1940-1945: i.e. looking at 20-30 more years of relatively stabilized temperatures". Despite a short period of relatively stable temperatures the longer-term trend shows that we have gained more than half a degree in the intervening 70 years. See the Goddard site at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/.
Jerry Howard Associate Professor Department of Biological Sciences University of New Orleans New Orleans, LA 70148 Voice: (504) 280-5441 Fax: (504) 280-6121
