Our local library is now full of books on Y2K. No
one is interested anymore so they just sit on the
shelf. Prior to Y2K i did not enjoy these books but
now i'm finding them interesting. They open up
lots of useful things to think about. For example:
1. How can we evaluate future predictions?
2. What is our bias about the future?
3. What reactions to Y2k would have been useful?
I checked out a few of the books and read them looking
for facts. One book said that Y2K will happen because
all computers will be impacted at the same time. We won't
be able to cope with massive failures.
Clearly we can look back and see this did not happen. In
fact, computers fail constantly. The question we should
ask at this point is how often do computers fail and
how many computers might be impacted at the same time?
After reading all the stuff on Y2K is concluded that no one
knew important facts and all the conclusions were based on
opinion. If this opinion was based on history we might be
able to give it some credibility but no... there isn't any
history of significant Y2K style events.
So.. we can look at ourselves and ask what our bias was.
Did we want to believe the opinions? Do we feel the future
is bleak? For me this was an interesting thought. I can see
lots of future problems and solving them looks almost
impossible. Still, i look forward to trying and have an
element of optimism. Hence, Y2K did not bother me much. It
was just another possible problem and did not seem that
plausible.
If we ask what response to Y2K would have been best, what
would you say? I think a response was called for and none of
the books got it. Everyone was looking a "things" and not
people. Almost all activities were short term responses to
an emergency. Another line of reasoning would ask how we
could structure our world to eliminate future Y2K style events.
What can we learn from Y2K?
When are questions more important than answers?
answer: when we persistently ask the wrong questions.
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jeff owens, [EMAIL PROTECTED], http://www.xprt.net/~jko
underground house, solar power, self-reliance, edible landscape
eco lifestyle discussion: subscribe ecopath -> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
