>A few weeks ago, I believe on this list, a quick discussion of Galton's
>regression to the mean popped up. I downloaded some of Galton's data,
>generated my own, and found some ways to express the effect in ways my
>non-statistian education friends might understand. Still working on
>that part.
>
>In addition, there was a reference to a wonderful article, which I read,
>and which explained the whole thing in excellent terms and clarity for
>me. The author is clearly an expert on the subject of detecting change
>in things. He (I think) even listed people who had fallen into the
>regression toward the mean fallacy, including himself.
>
>Problem: Now of course I really want that article again, and
>reference. I cannot find it on my hard drive. Maybe I didn't download
>it - it was large. But I can't find the reference to it, either. Bummer!
>
>Can anyone figure out who and what article I'm referring to, and
>re-point me to it?
>
>Very much obliged to you all,
>Jay
>
>--
>Jay Warner
>Principal Scientist
>Warner Consulting, Inc.
>4444 North Green Bay Road
>Racine, WI 53404-1216
>USA
>
Trochim's page has a nice description of the problem but with few historical
references:
http://trochim.human.cornell.edu/kb/regrmean.htm
Campbell, D. T. and D. A. Kenny 1999. A primer on regression artifacts.
Guilford Press. This book is devoted almost entirely to regression to the mean
and what to do about it.
Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the table. Harvard University Press.
[Stigler has several essays to the discovery of RTM under the heading
"Galtonian Ideas" He also presents a sobering case study of poor Otto Secrist,
whose 1933 magnum opus in econometrics is a classic RTM artifact.
Eugene Gallagher
ECOS
UMASS/Boston
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