I've enjoyed the comments about polynomial regression. There is a cute joke
that relays the dangers of extrapolating a model.
Two statisticians were travelling in an airplane from LA to New York. About
an hour into the flight, the pilot announced that they had lost an engine,
but don't worry, there are three left. However, instead of 5 hours it would
take 7 hours to get to New York. A little later, he announced that a second
engine failed, and they still had two left, but it would take 10 hours to
get to New York. Somewhat later, the pilot again came on the intercom and
announced that a third engine had died. Never fear, he announced, because
the plane could fly on a single engine. However, it would now take 18 hours
to get to New York. At this point, one statistician turned to the other and
said, 'Gee, I hope we don't lose that last engine, or we'll be up here
forever!'
I found this joke at the following web site:
http://www.xs4all.nl/~jcdverha/scijokes/1_2.html
<http://www.xs4all.nl/~jcdverha/scijokes/1_2.html> : Science Jokes:
Statistics and Statisticians, by Joachim Verhagen.
This story could also serve as a cautionary note about the interpretability
of the intercept term (estimated average flight time when the number of
engines=0).
Steve Simon, [EMAIL PROTECTED], Standard Disclaimer.
STATS - Steve's Attempt to Teach Statistics: http://www.cmh.edu/stats
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