in my stat class today, we were talking a bit about penn state's bad luck
(of course, good luck for iowa!)in the second overtime last saturday ...
here is my take on overtimes
I DON'T LIKE THEM ... here is why
football by definition is a game that is 60 minutes divided into 4 quarters
... THAT is the game ...
now, at the end of 60 minutes, we look on the scoreboard ... see which team
has more points ... and that team is the winner ...
if we reach 60 minutes and the scores are the same ... there is NO winner
... or no loser if you want to think of it that way ...
what if we played oklahoma tomorrow and, after 60 minutes ... the game was
24 to 24 ... that would be a victory to us ... probably a loss to them ...
but, we cannot deny the fact that at the end of regulation, no team had
more points than the other ... FOR WHATEVER REASONS
when you introduce overtime ... two things happen:
1. the game of football now has a new set of rules ... and a game is a game
is NOT necessarily a game ... that is, one game declares a winner in 60
minutes ... while in another it declares a winner in 64 minutes .... or 67
minutes ... (just think about that team down 3 points near the end ... when
the clock is about to run out and the other team has the ball ... they
would give an arm and a leg to be "given" 3 more minutes .... but, no such
luck ... ONLY IF YOU TIE!
GAMES THAT ARE WON, WHICH ALL ARE NOW, ARE not COMPARABLE anymore in terms
of the time of the game
2. the idea of contests is to win (sportsperson like of course) ... and,
with OT possible and the game close at the end ... one team with very
little time, down by the goal ... and needing 4 points to win but 3 points
to tie ... will more likely kick the game tying field goal ... thus take
their chances into the overtime ... better chance of getting that 3 points
with 7 seconds left than risking another running/pass play and run out of
time ...
thus, the end of game strategy is now much more conservative ...
is there any evidence that anyone knows of ... especially if someone has
done some statistical analysis on this ... that suggests or shows that this
is the case?
=================================================================
Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
=================================================================
