The latest polls are out. The New York Times gets an A for describing the precision and accuracy of their poll. Gallup gets a C- or D in my book. The New York Times today: http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/06/politics/06METH.html In theory, in 19 cases out of 20 the results based on such samples will differ by no more than three percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking out all American adults. For smaller subgroups the margin of sampling error is larger. In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Variations in the wording and order of questions, for example, may lead to somewhat different results. In a poll conducted just before an election, like this one, there are additional potential difficulties, like dramatic events or campaign appeals made by the candidates between the interviewing and Election Day, unusual patterns of voter turnout and the ultimate decisions made by those voters who said they were undecided or might change their mind or were supporting minor parties at the time of the poll. *********************** On the other hand, the Gallup organization continues to post an odd description of what their margin of error means: http://www.gallup.com/Poll/releases/pr001105d.asp For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points. -- Eugene D. Gallagher ECOS, UMASS/Boston Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ Before you buy. ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =================================================================
