Hasty writing -- I was responding to the cited
post. More than two questions were considered by
Hengartner -- he had charts indicating the
possible effects of recounting Dade County were it
to behave as did the other recounted counties.
Bob Wheeler wrote:
>
> There were two statistical questions considered by
> Nicholas Hengartner of Yale. For one, his
> conclusions erred because he assumed the wrong
> form for the ballot. For the second, he showed
> that the undervote ratio between optical scanned
> ballots and punched cards was for practical
> purposes independent of county and that the
> undervotes when punched cards were used was
> substantially larger than for scanned ballots. The
> failure of his analysis for the first conclusion
> had nothing to do with the validity of his second
> conclusion.
>
> The second conclusion is of course the important
> one for the plaintiffs, and I am sure that the
> judge understood it; however, the popular report
> may not reflect this since the error was
> skillfully produced. It was a masterful cross, and
> great theater up to the best of Perry Mason.
>
> For those who may at some time be called upon to
> testify on statistical matters, it would be
> worthwhile to find a way to view Hengartner's
> testimony. It was one of the better such that I
> have seen -- for instance, his explanation of the
> difference between association and causality was
> clear and properly suited to his audience, and his
> tactics in resistance to a hypothetical
> contingency table analysis was artful.
>
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> >
> > At today's Leon County trial involving a manual recount, the statistical
> > expert testified that the undervote in Florida counties that use punch
> > cards is significantly greater than in counties that use scan cards.
> > Part of the crossexamination ignored this conclusion and focused on side
> > comments written by the statistical expert about the 1998 election in
> > Palm Beach County.
> >
> > Evidently, in 1998 the Palm Beach vote for US senator was significantly
> > less than the vote for governor. The statistical expert was told that
> > the senate candidates were in the first page (column) and the
> > gubernatorial candidates on the second page (column) of the ballot.
> > Consequently, the expert concluded that this data may provide evidence
> > to support the claim that some voters may have been unable to punch the
> > chad in the first column, thus indicating some type of problem with the
> > vote-a-matic machine.
> >
> > The Bush lawyer presented a copy of the 1998 Palm Beach ballot showing
> > that both sets of candidates were on the first page--the senate at the
> > top, the gubernatorial in the middle. I don't see how this could
> > possibly weaken the witness' conclusions about the punch cards and scan
> > cards. Moreover, the 1998 discrepancies could indicate a machine problem
> > between the top and middle of the first column.
> >
> > Domenico Rosa
> >
> > Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
> > Before you buy.
>
> --
> Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED])
> ECHIP, Inc.
>
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Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED])
ECHIP, Inc.
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