I received a few responses to my previous posting. They helped me focus our question. Please forward this to appropriate individuals or lists. We are looking at how quantitative risk assessment is used. As part of our report, we would like to include a tutorial section on understanding large and small numbers. I know there has been some research showing that lay people do not have much comprehension of large and small numbers, e.g., millions, billions, millionths, billionths, etc. We are looking for ways to increase policy makers comprehension, numeracy, and critical thinking. Perhaps there is already a pamphlet like those ASA has on "What is a survey?". Perhaps, someone has a lesson plan on this topic. Perhaps, someone knows of citations, textbook sections, articles, or web pages. Perhaps someone has techniques of prompting thought about this kind of thinking. "Thought experiments" or simple demonstrations would fill the bill. We are looking for a Bill Nye level of presentation, i.e., developing an intuitive grasp that one needs to be careful with these kinds of numbers. One example of such a technique is: Draw a 10 inch line on a piece of paper. Tell people that the line represents 0 to 1,000. Ask them quickly put a mark where 1 is. Then ask them to think analytically by marking where 100 is, where 10 is, and then where 1 is. Then ask them to check themselves using a ruler.
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