I suspect that your problem is larger than you
think. See Kahneman, D. et.al. (1982) Judgment
under uncertainty: heuristics and biases,
Cambridge. In direct response to your query,
however, Morrison and Morrison (1994) Powers of
ten, Scientific American Library, has some
material that may help.
Arthur J Kendall wrote:
>
> I received a few responses to my previous posting. They helped me focus our
>question.
>
> Please forward this to appropriate individuals or lists.
>
> We are looking at how quantitative risk assessment is used. As part of our report,
>we would like to include a tutorial section on understanding large and small numbers.
> I know there has been some research showing that lay people do not have much
>comprehension of large and small numbers, e.g., millions, billions, millionths,
>billionths, etc. We are looking for ways to increase policy makers comprehension,
>numeracy, and critical thinking.
>
> Perhaps there is already a pamphlet like those ASA has on "What is a survey?".
>Perhaps, someone has a lesson plan on this topic. Perhaps, someone knows of
>citations, textbook sections, articles, or web pages. Perhaps someone has techniques
>of prompting thought about this kind of thinking. "Thought experiments" or simple
>demonstrations would fill the bill.
>
> We are looking for a Bill Nye level of presentation, i.e., developing an intuitive
>grasp that one needs to be careful with these kinds of numbers.
>
> One example of such a technique is:
> Draw a 10 inch line on a piece of paper. Tell people that the line represents 0 to
>1,000. Ask them quickly put a mark where 1 is. Then ask them to think analytically
>by marking where 100 is, where 10 is, and then where 1 is. Then ask them to check
>themselves using a ruler.
>
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--
Bob Wheeler --- (Reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED])
ECHIP, Inc.
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