dennis roberts wrote:
>
> At 08:42 AM 1/31/01 +1100, Alan McLean wrote:
>
> >It doesn't say anything about the actual value - and why should it? It
> >is not a measure of the value, but a measure of the strength of the
> >(sample) evidence *about* the value!
> >
> >Alan
>
> alan, seems like we are going 'round in circles ...
>
> we agree that there has to be some null, right?
>
> we agree that there has to be some sample data, with which to test the
> null, right? (or if you prefer, to compare TO the null)
>
> so, if that is the case ... and maybe it is not ... it is the interplay
> between sample data and the null, correct?
>
> if the p is low or high ... it has to say something about this interplay ...
>
> so, if the p is low ... then it suggests (more) that the sample data are
> not in alignment with the null (whatever it is) and if p is larger ... then
> it suggests this less, right?
>
> if this is not a pretty close to correct interpretation ... please clarify
>
For hypothesis testing there does have to be a null model - that is the
first feature that identifies hypothesis testing from other forms of
model selection.
A hypothesis test is only carried out if the sample data disagrees with
the null. If it is a point null (eg mu = 20) this is almost guaranteed.
The p value is essentially a measure of the level of disagreement
between the sample data and the null. If p is low, there is strong
agreement, if p is high there is weak disagreement.
So I agree that your interpretation is reasonably correct.
BUT - the p value still does not say anything about the actual value -
only about the level of disagreement between what the null says it
should be and the sample says it should be.
Alan
> >
> >
> >> _________________________________________________________
> >> dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university
> >> 208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm
> >>
> >> =================================================================
> >> Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
> >> the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
> >> http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
> >> =================================================================
> >
> >--
> >Alan McLean ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
> >Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
> >Monash University, Caulfield Campus, Melbourne
> >Tel: +61 03 9903 2102 Fax: +61 03 9903 2007
>
> ==============================================================
> dennis roberts, penn state university
> educational psychology, 8148632401
> http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm
--
Alan McLean ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
Monash University, Caulfield Campus, Melbourne
Tel: +61 03 9903 2102 Fax: +61 03 9903 2007
=================================================================
Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
=================================================================
