Robert Chung wrote
<Snip>
>Yike, Rich. Are you still sore that Bonds left the Pirates? Go
>back and check the entire thread. This thing started because on
>July 13, Eugene Gall quoted an article in "Slate" that invoked
>regression to the mean to "prove" that Bonds wouldn't hit 70.
I did post the original article on Barry Bonds and the placebo effect, by
Jordan Ellenberg, still available on slate
http://slate.msn.com/math/01-07-12/math.asp
I don't have my original post, but I think that RTM definitely applies to the
placebo effect, which measures the change in groups in before-after studies. I
doubt whether rtm can be applied to an individual case, but I can imagine a
case where it would, e.g., a single student takes a test and takes a similar
test with a known test-to-test correlation less than 1. One could calculate
whether the increase in that 1 student is within the range expected by the rtm
phenomenon or within the range of known test-to-test variability.
I'd have to reread the thread on BB, that I apparently started, but I don't
think this single case can be easily analyzed as rtm.
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