In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Rich Ulrich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >On Wed, 21 Nov 2001 10:24:54 -0600, Bill Jefferys ><[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Dennis Roberts) wrote: >> #on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might >> #consider for a moment: >> # >> #what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ... >> #that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to >> #students studying "inferential statistics" >> # >> #what i am mainly looking for would be answers like: >> # >> #the notion of ________ >> # >> #being able to do ______ >> I'd say "the notion of inverse probability", but of course that's >> because of where I am coming from :-) >I'd say, being able to re-frame the researcher's >fuzzy curiosity as a "testable hypothesis" -- I think >*that* is where you get the probability that is to be inverted. >Good hypothesizing would not be so valuable except >that it is rare. And there are so many people who are >close to it, and need it. So it ought to be valuable, as >a commodity in demand. This is even PRE-statistics. >As a commodity, at least, "the notion of inverse >probability" is less valuable because it is out of reach. >It is of concern, I think, to the people who have >finally achieved a p-value, and wonder what to do next. On the contrary, the notion of inverse probability is a probability concept, and understanding probability needs to come well before trying to do a statistics. How can one discuss a p-value, which is a probability statement, otherwise? Understanding probability does NOT mean being able to compute it. I do not advocate the rash calculation of inverse probabilities with respect to a convenient prior, but the use of preassigned p-values as decision criteria fail on even a cursory use of a decision formulation. No calculations are required. The p-value is considered, along with other statistics. >(Actually, I don't have a quick opinion, but I thought >Promoting Tests was a good way to pull Dennis's leg.) -- This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University. Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558 ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =================================================================
