In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Jerry Dallal <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >Herman Rubin wrote:
>> If you, and your students, want to understand statistics, >> do not start them out with ANY statistical procedures >> until they understand probability (NOT how to calculate >> probabilities) as well as evaluation of consequences and >> probability modeling. >For some unknown reason, today it struck me that if students >*really* understood probability, there would be a period not >survived by many that would begin with their asking, "Well, then, >why go on?" In a sense you can say that this is correct; if someone in another field understands probability, probability modeling, and the evaluation of consequences, a properly formulated problem needs nothing more than calculation, assuming that it is known how to calculate for that problem. Whatever decision rule is used can be summarized in the probability distribution of the results in each state of nature. Now there are reasons to condense and summarize this information, but this is still largely probability. Any justification of statistical procedures is based on the probabilistic behavior of the results; expectation, variance, etc., are probability concepts. One could still ask which method of evaluation should be used; this is not covered by probability. And there is the question of how to design the experiment; this uses probability, but is not included. So what is there in statistics which is not essentially probability? Now there are those who will be advancing the field, and these should start with what is known and try to push the frontier. But it is still essentially probability. -- This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University. Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558 . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
