> By this you mean that for un unknown period of time, the probability
> of event B occuring = probability of event A occuring = 1/2?
> If so, you should specify a model for the occurence time for the
> events A and B.
> for example an exponential.
Hi Angelica,
I don't know how to use an exponential to create a model since
I am not an expert in math. I also do not understand how you could say
that the probabilities are equal to 1/2. I could perhaps demonstrate
using an actual graph to explain my case.
I have normalized the time interval along the X-axis to be 0-100 and
events A & B have occured during this time interval, either before or
after our reference point R as shown below:-
---------x--------x-------x------x---x---x-------------x-------------->
0 A1 B1 A2 B2 R B3 A3
100
(10) (30) (40) (60) (65)(70) (90)
We could say in the above figure Number of events in the system, N=6
The problem is to find out what is more likely to happen at point R: A
or B.
So, I thought we could calculate the separate probabilities of A & B
at reference point R. I just want to show that B is more likely
because it is much closer to point R by proving P(B) > P(A).
Finally I want to show that: At point R->P(A) + P(B) = 1.
Hope this makes the problem somewhat clearer.
Anil
.
.
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