Thanks, this material is very interesting.
BTW  re: the Jennings et al cite
Kahneman, who did work such as this in social/cognitive psych,  recnetly 
received a Nobel prize.  Since there is no prize in 
psych/cognitive/behavioral science, it was a sprize in "Economics".

Art

Thom wrote:

>Bruce Weaver <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message news:<
>
>Not quite the same, but the literature on illusory correlations etc.:
>
>Chapman & Chapman:
>
>Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1967). Genesis of popular but
>erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal
>Psychology, 72, 193-204.
>
>Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an
>obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of
>Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271-280.
>
>Jennings & Ward (1965), Jennings, Amabile & Ross (1982) - the latter
>reprinted in Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982).
>Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge:
>Cambridge University Press.
>
>Mean judgements of correlation (from experience, not plots) = 100(1-
>root(1-RSquared)) in the Jennings et al. paper.
>
>Thom
>  
>

.
.
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