Am I missing something ... isn't it important to determine whether an effect has a low probability of occurring by chance?
you mean the data you got has a low probability of having been observed IF the null IS true?
if so, this is not the effect you are talking about ... you would like the "p" value you tell you that there is a HIGH probability of being the case given your observed data but, unfortunately, the p value we compute does not tell us that
and, also, WHAT effect? an effect of .03 ... .1 ... 3.4?
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