Herman Rubin wrote: > Here is an extreme version of a bad example; there is a > disease which is 50% lethal. The old treatment has been > given to 1,000,000 people and 510,000 have survived. > There is a new treatment which has been given to 3 people, > and all have survived. You find you have the disease; > which treatment will you take? > > The first has a very small p-value; it is about 20 > sigma out. The second has a probability of 1/8 of > occurring by chance if the treatment does nothing.
Wouldn't it depend on the survival rate without treatment? With advanced pancreatic cancer, for example, the second has a probability of 0 if the treatment does nothing. . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
