My approach is often to use very loose terms where I try to make connections to other concepts which might be more familiar:
*The null hypothesis could be considered as a map *You go out on a walkabout with that map in your hand, i e you take a sample *The p-value tells you the probability of ending where you find yourself in the end *If the p-value is low, then it must be reasonable to question the relevance of the map/the null hypothesis This way you can avoid - for some time - to include more tecnical terms. Any comments on this approach? Any fundamental gaps? --robert ******************** Robert Lundqvist Dept of mathematics Lulea University of Technology Sweden On Thu, 4 Dec 2003, VOLTOLINI wrote: > Dear friends, > > The P is the probability of getting a value of a test statistic equal to = or > greater than the one observed in your data, if it is a random pick from t= he > distribution of the test statistic that would be created if a specified n= ull > hypothesis were true. So, in the situation where the means of two > distributions are being compared, a t statistic might be calculated. If t= he > null hypothesis is that the distributions have an identical mean, the t > statistic comes from a distribution of t with mean of zero. In such a > distribution, there is a particular probability (P) that any given value = of > t will be equaled or exceeded if you pick t values at random. It is not t= o > be confused with the probability you choose to decide to reject the null > hypothesis (i.e. alpha, which is then the probability of rejecting the nu= ll > hypothesis incorrectly - you think it is wrong when it is true, i.e. the > probability of Type I error). > > But....... I think this is very dificult to teach for young students (usi= ng > these words!). So, does anyone can send me a suggestion? I would like to = use > a more simple explanation! > > For instance, in the book "The truth about Science" (p.101) I read: > > "A p-value of 0.80 means that > there is an 80% chance of finding the data > when the population are exactly the same". > > So, for many students this statement means like "the P value is the > probability of Ho is correct" ! > > I would like to avoid a simple explanation to my kidos like "just look if > the P value is above or below 0.05 to reject or accept the Ho" :( > > > Thanks for any help !!! > > > > > Voltolini > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > Prof. J. C. VOLTOLINI > Grupo de Estudos em Ecologia de Mamiferos (ECOMAM) > Universidade de Taubate, Departamento de Biologia > Praca Marcelino Monteiro 63, Bom Conselho. > Taubate, SP. CEP 12030-010. BRASIL. > Tel: 0XX12 - 2254165 (Lab. Zool.) ou 2254277 (Depto. Biol.) > E-Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://jcvoltol.sites.uol.com.br/personalidades/ > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > "Tutto di noi =E8 un angelo con un'ala e > possiamo volare soltanto se ci abbracciamo" > > . > . > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D > Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the > problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: > . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D > . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
