Maybe, the p value talls you the probability of ending where the map says (back at base), IF the map is correct. And you read it correctly.....
I like the idea of a map, although it is 2-D and the p value is 1-D. BTW, what's a chap from Sweden (@sm.luth.se) doing on walkabouts?! :) Jay Robert Lundqvist wrote: > My approach is often to use very loose terms where I try to make > connections to other concepts which might be more familiar: > > *The null hypothesis could be considered as a map > > *You go out on a walkabout with that map in your hand, i e you take a > sample > > *The p-value tells you the probability of ending where you find yourself > in the end > > *If the p-value is low, then it must be reasonable to question the > relevance of the map/the null hypothesis > > This way you can avoid - for some time - to include more tecnical terms. > Any comments on this approach? Any fundamental gaps? > > --robert > ******************** > Robert Lundqvist > Dept of mathematics > Lulea University of Technology > Sweden > > On Thu, 4 Dec 2003, VOLTOLINI wrote: > > > Dear friends, > > > > The P is the probability of getting a value of a test statistic equal to = > or > > greater than the one observed in your data, if it is a random pick from t= > he > > distribution of the test statistic that would be created if a specified n= > ull > > hypothesis were true. So, in the situation where the means of two > > distributions are being compared, a t statistic might be calculated. If t= > he > > null hypothesis is that the distributions have an identical mean, the t > > statistic comes from a distribution of t with mean of zero. In such a > > distribution, there is a particular probability (P) that any given value = > of > > t will be equaled or exceeded if you pick t values at random. It is not t= > o > > be confused with the probability you choose to decide to reject the null > > hypothesis (i.e. alpha, which is then the probability of rejecting the nu= > ll > > hypothesis incorrectly - you think it is wrong when it is true, i.e. the > > probability of Type I error). > > > > But....... I think this is very dificult to teach for young students (usi= > ng > > these words!). So, does anyone can send me a suggestion? I would like to = > use > > a more simple explanation! > > > > For instance, in the book "The truth about Science" (p.101) I read: > > > > "A p-value of 0.80 means that > > there is an 80% chance of finding the data > > when the population are exactly the same". > > > > So, for many students this statement means like "the P value is the > > probability of Ho is correct" ! > > > > I would like to avoid a simple explanation to my kidos like "just look if > > the P value is above or below 0.05 to reject or accept the Ho" :( > > > > > > Thanks for any help !!! > > > > > > > > > > Voltolini > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Prof. J. C. VOLTOLINI > > Grupo de Estudos em Ecologia de Mamiferos (ECOMAM) > > Universidade de Taubate, Departamento de Biologia > > Praca Marcelino Monteiro 63, Bom Conselho. > > Taubate, SP. CEP 12030-010. BRASIL. > > Tel: 0XX12 - 2254165 (Lab. Zool.) ou 2254277 (Depto. Biol.) > > E-Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > http://jcvoltol.sites.uol.com.br/personalidades/ > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > > > > "Tutto di noi =E8 un angelo con un'ala e > > possiamo volare soltanto se ci abbracciamo" > > > > . > > . > > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D > > Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the > > problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: > > . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . > > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D > > > . > . > ================================================================= > Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the > problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: > . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . > ================================================================= -- Jay Warner Principal Scientist Warner Consulting, Inc. 4444 North Green Bay Road Racine, WI 53404-1216 USA Ph: (262) 634-9100 FAX: (262) 681-1133 email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.a2q.com The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today? . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
