A better definition of "tied or near-tied" is:
For a parrticular voter, two candidates are tied or near-tied if, by voting for one of them and not for the other, that voter could make or break a tie for first place between them.
[end of definition]
In the inequalities in my previous posting, I may have written "F1" & "F2" when I meant "U1" & "U2".
In those inequalitlies I was assuming that the probabililty, if F1 outpolls F2, that votiing for F1 and not for X makes or breaks a tie between F1 & X is the same as the probability if F2 outpolls F1, voting for X and not for F2 will make or break a tie between X & F2. Either those probabilities are the same or they're unknown, which amounts to the same thing.
Mike Ossipoff
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