The current election for president of Peru may give an excellent real- world example of top-two runoff (and thus probably IRV) failing to elect a Condorcet winner. According to the Wikipedia coverage of the election at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvian_national_election,_2006 , the official results of the vote that took place on 9 April 2006 will be released in around ten days. The "partial official results" place Ollanta Humala ahead of Alan Garcia and Lourdes Flores, in that order, meaning that the runoff election to be held in around a month will likely include only Humala and Garcia. However, the last polls before the election showed that Flores would win a runoff against either Humala (55%-45%) or Garcia (58%-42%), making her the likely Concorcet winner, since all other candidates were well behind the pack. (Those same polls showed that Humala would be favored over Garcia 51%-49%. My brother is in Peru right now with the Peace Corps and is hoping that Humala, a friend of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, doesn't win--he says that Humala would be likely to kick Peace Corps out of Peru.)
-- Rob LeGrand, psephologist [EMAIL PROTECTED] Citizens for Approval Voting http://www.approvalvoting.org/ __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com ---- election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
