At http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1252
1. A plurality poll of people who said they would vote in the Democratic caucuses or primaries found: Clinton 33% Obama 25% Edwards 12% ... Not sure 20% So at first glance it seems Clinton pairwise defeats Obama. (This is admittedly a pretty shaky conclusion because the comparison was _not_ done pairwise, and because only Democrats were included in this poll. Would a pairwise poll of all subjects - Dems, Repubs, and others - have found that Obama pairwise defeats Clinton?) 2. Pairwise polls of all subjects showed: Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40% Giuliani 40%, Obama 46% McCain 47%, Clinton 39% McCain 40%, Obama 44% Conclusion: there appears to be a cycle of defeats Clinton > Obama > (Giuliani, McCain) > Clinton. This poll is weak evidence that cycles of defeats can occur in real life. If the presidential election used a Condorcet method, the cycle-breaking method could become important! Cheers, - Jan ---- election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
