> This site is slightly biased toward the PLQ, however you can download > a detailed prediction, seat by seat under the projection file. > > http://democraticspace.com/blog/quebec2007/ > http://democraticspace.com/blog/category/canadian-politics/quebec2007/ > > I think that the result will be PQ minoritarian, but with the PLQ receiving > more votes than PQ. PLQ delayed PR application despite its own promises > and electoral program.
if you are interested in the Quebec election, you might be interested in this. http://lists.electorama.com/pipermail/election-methods-electorama.com/2007-March/019859.html The Thread is titled "divided house problem of close vote (50%+1)" I started thinking about this problem when I heard lots of people complaining that the double super majority required in the Ontario and BC referendums (60% popular vote + 60% of the ridings) on electoral reform were undemocratic. While I agree with them I couldn't help thinking that the solution they proposed (50%+1) was also undemocratic, and given to random chance. Thinking back to 1995 the Quebec referendum was not so much a victory for the "No" in my opinion as it was a "Tie". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Quebec_referendum and at the risk of (mis)quoting Rex Murphy "Had it been a little more rainy in Montreal, we might have had a different result." Then you look at other factors that largely effect the outcome. Like * When you ask the question. Leaders like Charest, Dion, Harper, Chrétien: are constantly watching the polls, to try and think when they can get the result that favours them the most. Cherest, tried to take advantage of the fact that Boisclair is not at all liked., by calling the election. He obviously failed to account for the fact that most people hate him also. So, In my opinion 50% +1 or -1 is far to easy for the people in power to influence and far to vulnerable to random noise. But I also think that Super majority criteria are anti democratic as well. They can lead to minority rule. So I came up with this basic idea, based on a simple neuron model by asking the question multiple times with a super majority threshold. your score is Score = 'Old Score' + 'Yes%' - 50% with criteria to automatically re-ask the question, if the result is close. check out the thread, or post questions if you are at all interested. any way in conclusion "Vive le Québec! Vive le Canada Français!" ---- election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
