Not sure I have this right but why not just do some 
accelerated temp testing with a sample quantity? 

I calculate that 16,006 hrs (95.27 weeks) at 20 degrees C 
reduces to just 6.01 weeks  at  65 degrees C. 

Regards,  Doug 

Jon Ilseng wrote:
> 
> For the reliability engineers out there, I am looking for ideas on how
> to perform a reliability test for a Base Transceiver Subsystem with a
> predicted MTBF of 16,006 hours.  Researching the MIL-HDBK-781 test
> plans, the shortest test time is Test Plan XXID.  Test Plan XXID has a
> test duration of 17,606.6 hours (1.1 X 16,006 hours).  This is
> equivalent to 733 days or 2 years just to conduct a reliability test.
> Plus, Test Plan XXID allows no relevant failures.  There has to be a
> smarter and more cost effective method to perform a reliability test to
> verify this 16,006-hour MTBF.  Any ideas would be greatly appreciated.

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