Production of Primary Goods
.
Brazil was founded by Portugese explorers in the 1500's. The country was an
imperial colony for over 300 years. Head to head with China
.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.
Fifth largest population
.
Under Portuguse rule, Brazil concentrated on the production of primary
products such as food and raw materials, stunting the country's development
relative to Western manufacturing economies. It was only in the late 19th
century, after the abolition of slavery, that Brazil began a process of
industrialization.
.
Brazil-World's Ninth-Largest Economy
.
Bovespa stock market in São Paulo, Brazil, Latin America's largest stock
exchange.
>From 1950 and 80's Brazil underwent a significant industrial transformation.
During this period, industry's contribution to GDP nearly doubled. By the
1990's, Brazil produced 1 million cars per year, nearly 2 million tons of
fertilizers, 3 million refrigerators and around 70 million cubic meters of
reprocessed petroleum.
.
Economic liberalization of Brazil began after World War II. Brazil was a
major exporter of rubber and other raw materials to the US's WWII war
machine, and by the end of the war Brazil had accumulated large foreign
reserves. However, Brazil's fixed exchange rate was valued too highly in the
postwar era, when Brazil was no longer as integral to the United States
economy as it had been in the past. The combination of a mispriced currency
peg and high inflation led to a balance of payment crisis. In response to a
1953 foreign exchange crisis, Brazil liberalized its exchange rate regime.
.
Brazil's new, flexible exchange rate was somewhat unusual; different
exchange rates were set for different types of imports and exports. Imports
of goods that were in competition with goods that were produced in Brazil
had a worse rate than exchange rates for imports of goods that could only be
produced abroad. The Brazilian "exchange rate" also served as a de facto
tariff. The variation of exchange rates helped curtail unnecessary imports
and thereby improved the balance of payments situation.  Brazil experienced
rapid economic growth between 1950 and 1971 with an average growth rate of
7%. The manufacturing sector experienced considerable change with the
traditional industries like textiles and food declining in importance.
.
A Coup
.
In 1964 Brazil experienced an army coup, and a military junta instituted
many market reforms for Brazil's then-overregulated economy. The government
took measures to reduce inflation and removed some of the accumulated
distortions of the heavily regulated Brazilian exchange regime. The
government also attracted significant foreign investment, alleviating the
balance of payment crisis. The reforms allowed the economy to grow at an
annual average rate of 11.1% between 1968 and 1973.
.
The Plano Real (The Real Plan)
.
In 1994 the "Plano Real" pegged the real to the USD to prevent Brazilian
politicians from inflating their way out of Brazil's deficit problems.
Although inflation was brought down to single digits, it was not enough to
avoid a foreign exchange rate appreciation. Exports decreased, and the
balance of payments worsened. The Real Plan did eventually eliminate
inflation, but the large current account deficit became problematic as
worldwide risk premia increased, following the Asian crisis in 1997-98.
.
The IMF offered monetary assistance, conditional on Brazil going through
another painful round of economic reforms. The offer was for US$41.5 bn USD
after Brazil submitted a credible fiscal adjustment program. Brazil removed
its dollar peg, bolstering otherwise sluggish growth in 1999. Brazil's total
debt to GDP ratio dropped below 50%, which was better than the IMF target.
.
Recent Progress
.
Brazil's efforts at economic restructuring have overall been highly
successful.
Liuz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, whose left-wing support base initially
frightened investors, proved to be not only an adroit politician, but a
relatively laissez-faire president, at least by Latin American standards.
During the past few years productivity has also risen considerably. However,
Brazil's annual GDP growth over the past decade has averaged 2.5% per year,
and is still low relative to the OECD area. Fiscal policy has been in line
with expectations. Public debt has been reduced since 2003 (although it is
still relatively high compared to other emerging markets). Brazil used very
high bank interest rates to destroy inflation as an economic threat.
Brazil's next challenge is to reduce its public debt without tax hikes that
would make Brazil less attractive to foreign investment.
.
According to the OECD, Brazil's rate of innovation, the key factor in
endogenous economic growth, has accelerated. However, the level of R&D is
still low relative to other OECD countries. Brazil needs to improve its
private-sector innovation to compete effectively in the global economy. For
Brazil to reach the OECD average it will need to increase its R&D investment
to 4 times its current share of GDP. Brazil's labor force is comparable to
other OECD countries and its level of skills and education is improving.
.
Brazil's stock index, the Bovespa, has outperformed the S&P500, FTSE 100 and
has nearly matched Mexico's Bolsa since 1995. In terms of valuations, P/E
ratio, and price-to-book ratio, the Bovespa is in line with similarly
developing economies. Brazilian companies are trading around 1 ½ times book
value with a PE of around 10. Average debt to equity of Bovespa companies is
around 90%, compared to 145% for the S&P 500.
.

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