The 250 year figure is based on a "direct hit", not side effects, and that is a known meteorological number. That would bring in excess of hurricane force winds mostly over eastern Massachusetts, We do get some sub hurricane force winds at a closer frequency. It was an anomoly to have the two in 1938 and 1955. 1955 was more of a flooding issue.
Ray -----Original Message----- From: "Joseph Zorzin" <[email protected]> To: <[email protected]> Date: Mon, 04 May 2009 10:13:56 -0400 Subject: [ENTS] Re: Kalanu Prong, Greenbrier, TN GRSM 4-21-2009 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Lee Frelich" <[email protected]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, May 04, 2009 9:05 AM Subject: [ENTS] Re: Kalanu Prong, Greenbrier, TN GRSM 4-21-2009 > > Joe: > > Based on some research I did during the 1990s, for part of New England > and other coastal areas hit by hurricanes (perhaps every 250 years for a > direct hit at any given location), one would expect about 1/3 of the > landscape to be covered with even-aged stands in various stages of > development, about 1/3 in transition to uneven-aged condition, and the > remaining third old multi-aged stands, usually referred to as old growth. ********** Lee, just curious about the 250 year frequency for hurricanes, a figure I've heard elsewhere. How dependable is that statistic? And, the "hurricane zone" would include about what percentage of all of New England? Or, another way to ask that- it would include roughly what distance from the shore? Your breakdown into thirds seems very reasonable and without any divine intervention with better facts, probably the best we can have. ********** > > For areas not in the direct path of hurricanes, such as western MA, > where hurricane winds were not very powerful, and thunderstorm winds > such as derechos and tornadoes were the common form of disturbance, > probably about 10% of the stands would be even-aged, 10% in transition, > and 80% would be old multi-aged stands. The southern Appalachians would > probably have been in this category, because they are far inland, giving > protection from the full strength of hurricanes, but not so far inland > as to be in tornado alley. ********** that all sounds reasonable ********** > > Of course, using a natural heritage definition of old growth, anything > that had not been logged, then it would all have been old growth. Its > also important to note the 'even-aged' stands after natural disturbance > are very different in character than even-aged stands after clearcut > like the ones that have been done recently in MA, since there is a lot > more coarse woody debris, and usually remnant trees of a variety of > sizes and ages. ********** Right. Do you have a rough estimate of about what percentage of the New England landscape was strongly influenced in structure by Native burning? Joe ********** > > Lee > > Joseph Zorzin wrote: >> Question for Bob and Will and the others. Roughly speaking, what >> percentage of the forests of the East - if we could go back a >> millennium- would appear to us as "old growth"?? >> >> Of course there have always been fires, storms, clearings for >> villages, etc. I'm just trying to get a sense- if we could go back and >> wander around the forests- would they be filled with gigantic trees, >> thus looking very different from now, or not? >> >> Joe >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> *From:* [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> *To:* [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> *Sent:* Saturday, May 02, 2009 9:11 AM >> *Subject:* [ENTS] Re: Kalanu Prong, Greenbrier, TN GRSM 4-21-2009 >> >> Will, >> >> A phenomenal report as usual. It would be great to have a list >> of all the 20-foot circumference trees in the Smokies. Information >> in email communications becomes too scattered. Anyway, thanks for >> the great reports. >> >> Bob >> >> >> > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Eastern Native Tree Society http://www.nativetreesociety.org Send email to [email protected] Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/entstrees?hl=en To unsubscribe send email to [email protected] -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
