Life After Warming

Really even looking at the warmest predictions of climate change, 5 to 7 
degrees centigrade, it should not be any warmer than it was in the Miocene 
Epoch 23.8 to 5.3 Million years ago.  The Eocene Epoch, Paleocene Epoch, and 
Cretaceous Period were each respectively both older and warmer.  It is nothing 
that has not been seen before.  Global warming will certainly screw things up 
for people and our existing ecosystem distributions, but will not be the end of 
everything.

http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/tertiary/mio/miolife.html
  The overall pattern of biological change for the Miocene is one of expanding 
open vegetation systems (such as deserts, tundra, and grasslands) at the 
expense of diminishing closed vegetation (such as forests). This led to a 
rediversification of temperate ecosystems and many morphological changes in 
animals. Mammals and birds in particular developed new forms, whether as 
fast-running herbivores, large predatory mammals and birds, or small quick 
birds and rodents.  Plant studies of the Miocene have focused primarily on 
spores and pollen. Such studies show that by the end of the Miocene 95% of 
modern seed plant families existed, and that no such families have gone extinct 
since the middle of the Miocene. A mid-Miocene warming, followed by a cooling 
is considered responsible for the retreat of tropical ecosystems, the expansion 
of northern coniferous forests, and increased seasonality. With this change 
came the diversification of modern graminoids, especially grasses and sedges. 

The climate change from global warming is likely to make the human influenced 
extinctions worse.  There will be problems in that the change will be more 
rapid than many species can migrate, but likely (in my opinion) some 
populations of most of the major tree and plant species will survive and 
potentially spread out again once the climate stabilizes.  The distribution of 
various ecosystems will change, and some new associations will develop.  This 
type of change has happened many times in the geologic history, the only 
difference is that this change MAY be more rapid.  There are many predictions, 
but honestly I don't think anyone really knows exactly what will happen.

Ed Frank


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