Date: Mon, 10 Apr 2000 17:34:08 +0100 From: Xianfu Lu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Re: Worldwatch: Ice Cover Melting Dear Jill + other members of Climate Change interest group, Thanks very much for your interesting and inspiring inputs. I was also kind of disappointed not to be able to meet and have discussions with other members of the interest group during the Brazilian session. Let's try our best to make it up from now on... Yes, an increasing list of studies has been building up, bit by bit, our confidence that behind the climate change observed in the past several decades, there is, quite likely, a cause as to human activities. Yet, it is very true that global as well as regional climate varies NATURALLY at decadal time scale. There are enormous studies trying to derive the natural climate variability from the observed signals of climate change through : (1) using long historic records of climate (unfortunately, these are, in practice, rarely longer than 100 years); (2) using very long simulations of climate to characterise natural variability in the absence of global warming. The HadCM2 (a global climate model developed at the Hadley Center, UK), for example, has ben used to simulate 1000 years of "stable" climate; (3) using an ensemble of projections made with the same climate model and forcing scenario but slightly different initial conditions. The differences between the projects represents natural climatic variability. Several projects related to the various dimensions of climate change are being undertaken at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. Please take a look at our webpage http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk for more detailed information, if anyone is interested. With my best regards, Xianfu xx http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_679000/679650.stm --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mulai langganan: kirim e-mail ke [EMAIL PROTECTED] Stop langganan: kirim e-mail ke [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archive ada di http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]
