On Wed, 19 Feb 2003, Ian Woollard wrote:
> >>...aeroplanes are starting to be unpiloted...
> >And their reliability record, so far, makes expendable launchers look
> >wonderful. And it's not because people haven't been trying hard.
> >
> I don't believe that this is going to be true in the long run. I draw an
> analogy to early compilers...
The analogy seems somewhat flawed, because serious use of pilotless
aircraft is at least half a century old; the current ones can hardly be
described as "early". I'm sure they've gotten better over time, but it
hasn't been revolutionary, and I don't see anything suggesting that a
revolution is imminent either.
People have been proclaiming the imminent triumph of pilotless aircraft
since the 1950s.
> Also if you design a vehicle now, it won't
> hit the market for several years, the state of the art is very probably
> going to improve in that time.
If you design a vehicle now, you're working with today's technology, not
that of several years from now. And again, I see little sign of impending
radical change in this area, despite a lot of people who've been trying
hard to produce one for quite a while now. The state of the art is likely
to be only slightly better several years from now.
> >Nor has this escaped the notice of the regulators. Kelly eventually
> >added pilots to their reusable first stage because the FAA situation
> >was looking impossible otherwise.
>
> Yes, but that's a winged vehicle. It makes a lot of sense to pilot
> winged vehicles. DC-X style vehicles are much less clear.
The key role of the pilot is, and has been for many years, as flight
engineer rather than stick-and-rudder jockey. His job is to manage system
redundancy in the face of unexpected problems, not to wiggle the control
surfaces (although it is convenient if he can also do the latter).
(By the way, DC-X style vehicles have control surfaces and have quite a
bit of aerodynamic maneuverability until they do their flip for landing.
Don't confuse them with the older Bono SSTO designs which reenter base-
first and are semiballistic.)
Henry Spencer
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