Gentlefolk,Yes, but how quickly the equipment ages is all part of launch experience too. When I say launch a/ lot/, I mean, wear out the vehicle in 4 months ;-)
<< the chances of going bang goes down with launch experience, not up! >>
For initial experimental operations, yes, but this learning curve can peak early. With long term routine operations, there's a tendency for complacency to set in, pressure to cut corners to save money (until one gets some unfortunate feedback), and finally, the equipment ages.
Arguably, we've seen some of this in both DCX and shuttle mishaps.Whilst complacency played a small part with the Shuttle mishaps, I would argue that the root cause of the two major accidents were design faults.
DC-X; well that was done on an absolute shoe-string, I don't think you can draw any huge conclusions.
--Best, Gerald
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--
-Ian "Everything I say is a lie"
Motto: "You're Not Authorized to Know Our Motto." "The future isn't what it used to be, but then it never was."
"Predestination was doomed from the start."
"Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you take
into account Hofstadter's Law" -Hostadter's Law
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