Andrew Tubbiolo wrote:
Given the time of projected impact (21:21 UTC), that puts it over the Pacific Ocean and Asia.Sean R. Lynch said:
Neodys <http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2004MN4;main> shows 55 observations over the same span, though the impactor table says 35. It also shows a higher probability of impact (0.593% instead of 0.34%).
Some observatories return better astrometry than others. The MPC reports all valid observations submitted, but Andrea Botinni probably threw a few more uncertian observations to reduce the overall error bars. Arc is more important than the number of observations. With 6 months of arc, this solution looks a lot better than the typical two weeks or less I have seen in the past.
In the past when Botinni has requested followup on 'interesting' objects, the impact solutions have rarely survived the night, and almost never more than 3 nights in my experience. We'll see....
Anything with a positive Palermo scale value is "interesting." I could
care less about the Torino scale :)
At close to 2 GT of TNT, it would be a pretty good show. My bet is this object will make another flyby ala 2002 NY40. Either way it will be fun.
So has anybody run an orbit on this? Which continent/ocean lies in the
impact trajectory?
With more observations, the impatc probability has now gone UP to 1.6%, putting it over one on the Palermo scale. If I'm not mistaken, that's 10x the background risk.
Tsunamis in Silicon Valley, anyone?
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