You say:
> Which desktop environment is going to dominate Linux in
> three years?
We are in the proliferation stage. We will expect to see
several desktops over the next year. Then we will
see some level of consolidation.
The consolidation will not happen until some of the edges
are rubbed off. They will bounce against each other
until .... Snap.... Some factor takes a runaway feedback
loop.
Computers really did not take off until...Snap, there
was visicalc and suddenly the average manager could
see a point to using it.
The Linux user interface that will take off will be the
one that the average non-user can look at and see
a point to it.
When visicalc took off and dominated the market, it was
not because the previously existing computer users
adopted it, but because the non-users all of a sudden
found a new need to have a computer they did not have before.
So probably none of the people on this list is using the
user interface that will dominate in 3 years. But
perhaps one of these will be the genesis of the
user interface.
The key will be to catch market attention.
What would happen if 90% of the people who had pentiums
converted to linux? What are the barriers to this?
Mostly the barriers are
1) awareness
2) momentum
3) compatability with existing data/tools
So, when I was at HP in the pre-personal computer market,
we used to talk about the BIG 5. Those personal
computer apps that will drive the market. They were:
Word processing
spreadsheet
database
graphics
telecommunication
So, what do we see now for the average user?
They use:
Word processing
spreadsheets
(maybe) databases
Graphics
email
web
And perhaps some local specific app.
And kool Games.
So, in my mind, the Desktop that will dominate will have
nothing to do with technical value, but will be the one
that makes using those tools above to be a trivial
and not confusing experience.
To make this go , the things that will make a big difference
is getting an office suite that is clearly as good or
better than MS office. And getting Kool games as good as
what the Windows games do.
What does office/games have to do with a desk top?
The key will be to make all the little look and feel issues
be seemless. To make the applications and all the little font
glitches and display glitches smooth out and go away.
When/if that happens... All that needs to take place is that
10% of the existing Microsoft market adopt that configuration
and that desktop will suddenly dominate the market.
So... It is important to look outside the Linux box to
the markets next door to see what the factors are for
market domination.
Sorry for the long ramble on a saturday morning.
rocksolidnetworks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
% Sigh... Questions like this always seem to come up... I never understand why, but...
% So... One of the grooviest things about using a *nix is that you use X, and which
ever
% gui you prefer, some like kde, some like fvwm, some like gnome, some like sawmill,
and some
% are like myself and like enlightenment. Now, just because Enlightenment is my fav
gui, doesnt mean
% that KDE is bad, infact I do use KDE if needed. back to the question at hand (which
desktop environment will dominate),
% My best guess is if one dominates, it wont be the one I like, but I really dont
think there will be only one (ofcoures I said that
% a long time ago about computers, and well... Microsoft pretty much totally
dominated.)
% I guess the best answer is... Only time will tell :) I hope they all live and
thrive well :)
%
% Jamie
%
%
% You wrote:
% > Hey, here's a question for the assembled wisdom. Which desktop
% > environment is going to dominate Linux in three years? KDE had an
% > early lead, but it hasn't had a stable release in over a year, and
% > Gnome is progressing rapidly. Gnome seems to have a lot more
% > commercial development (e.g., Eazel, Helix) and buzz going. It's not
% > clear to me which project has the bigger development community.
% >
% > So what's going to happen? (Microsoft Desktop for Linux. *-: )
% >
% > --
% > K<bob>
% > [EMAIL PROTECTED], http://www.jogger-egg.com/
% >
% >
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