In only a couple years GM leased (leased not sold) all of the EV1s that they made available (approx 600) in an intentionally limited marketplace. They were only available in a few cities in two states, they wouldn't even consider you application if you didn't make 6 figures or more and you had to have what they considered the "right" personality.
Even with all that, most dealers had waiting lists of qualified applicants that couldn't get one. Some dealers had hundreds of people on their waiting list. Again this was in just a few cities in two states. Don't forget federal and state incentives. When the EV1 was available you could have gotten $10,000 from Arizona plus the $4,000 from the IRS, that would have brought a $40,000 car down to average car price range. I think some areas in california offered even more. Illinoise offers $7,000 IIRC , etc. So yes I do think they could have sold or leased a hundred thousand within two or three years had they actually put them up for sale. Especially when you consider incentives. And I'm talking the PbA one that went more than 50 miles. Of course this also assumes that few if any competitors had EVs available. Adam Kuehn wrote: > Peter VanDerWal wrote: > >> Joe sixpack might not but some people will. Perhaps not by the >> millions but at least by the thousands. >> >> GM could have sold or leased thousands of EV1s in California alone, >> had they been willing. Open up sales to the reast of the US and they >> could have sold a hundred thousand easy. And this is for a $40,000+ >> two seater sports car. > > > A hundred thousand easy? In a decade, maybe. > > There are about 8.5-9 million new cars sold in the U.S. each year, > total. This figure does not count trucks, which account for about the > same number of units annually, but which are aimed at a very different > type of market. (Figures from a study done by the University of > Michigan.) Perhaps 2% of those 9 million cars retail in the $40K+ > range - and since I'm excluding trucks, 2% is a plenty generous > figure. That's only 180,000 *total* cars annually in the price range > you are talking about. > > Do you really think that a single EV model will pull more than 50% of > that niche market? > > Even the California ZEV alliance claims that only about 30,000 units > of the hybrid Prius and Civic were sold in the entire U.S. prior to > the end of 2001. That is the sales figure of the models together, not > for each, and covers at least a two-year span. Toyota's own website > claims a worldwide production figure for the Prius of just 100,000 > units over a five-year span. Worldwide. Five years. For a car that > costs half as much, carries twice as many passengers, and has no range > limitation compared to the EV1. > > A sales goal of 100,000 production EVs, let alone EV1s in particular, > in a decade is plenty optimistic. If I'm a shareholder in a large > auto maker who has invested entirely for the purpose of making money, > I wouldn't want them to be putting hundreds of millions of dollars > into that tiny market space. (I don't own any stock in any auto > maker, BTW.) > > I'm as enthusiastic about electric technology as the next guy, but > let's keep our discussions grounded in reality, shall we? >
