Well stated. Thank you for sharing this Bruce!
On Wed, Feb 27, 2013 at 12:12 AM, brucedp5 <[email protected]> wrote: > > EVs ... get lambasted because we are looking for a silver bullet > The real question asked by few is, where should EVs be today? > > > http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2013/02/20/guest-post-electric-vehicle-deployment-where-should-we-be-today/ > [images] Electric Vehicle Deployment – Where Should We Be Today? > By Melissa C. Lott Feb 20 2013 Guest Post by Tali Trigg > > [images / rudisillart > > http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/files/2013/02/800px-Chevy_Volt__Nissan_Leaf.jpg > Nissan Leaf EV between two Chevy Volt pih > > http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/files/2013/02/tali_graph.png > Figure 1. Months Since Market Introduction (Updated Until December 2012) > Source: EVI, MarkLines Database, Nissan, Toyota, hybridcars.com > ] > > Electric vehicles (EVs) have come under siege in the media in the past two > years, with several observers pointing to shortcomings like driving range, > performance in cold weather and resale value as indicators of their > imminent > demise. Do we know for sure that EVs will overcome all these challenges? > No. > But we are seeing impressive year-on-year sales, declining battery costs, a > decarbonizing power sector, and cities around the world committed to > reducing congestion and local air pollution. For these reasons, EVs should > not be dismissed and are among the best options to decarbonize the > transport > sector while boosting a flagging automotive sector, creating jobs, and > reducing local air pollution. > > The real question asked by few is this: where should EVs be today? The > answer should probably be framed in terms of technological development and > a > close proxy for measuring development would be another vehicle such as the > hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). In Figure 1, you can see new vehicle sales > versus over time since the vehicle’s initial market launch (date of > introduction in parentheses). This figure shows that all major battery > electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) are on > track or doing better than what the Prius HEV was doing at a similar time. > Of course, this is not strictly an apples-to-apples comparison (it does not > take overall vehicle market into account, nor potential subsidy effects, > for > example), but does help us evaluate a true answer, beyond the press eager > for a fail-or-victory message. > > The truth is, given that EVs were only released in 2011 to a full range of > consumers worldwide, a doubling of sales (approximately 120,000 in 2012 vs. > 45,000 in 2011) is not bad growth. Of course, the key is to keep this > momentum to hit intermediate-to-long-term targets, but still; perhaps the > death of EVs is greatly exaggerated? > > The simple truth is that EVs are coming along, but they are going through a > delicate phase that most new technologies experience in the early years > when > only so-called “Early Adopters” begin buying the product, being less > sensitive to a higher price point. Consider the MP3 player in the late > 1990s, before Apple introduced the iPod in 2001. Another parallel > “product” > launch was the Internet, which transcended product state and spurred a > systematic reinvention of information sharing in a revolution that took > years, not days. EVs similarly have the potential to integrate into the > power grid and do much more than get you from Point A to Point B. > > Bottom line – EVs are a new or (depending on your perspective) revived > technology – and as such must pass through several stages of technological > development, optimization, and scale-up. Today’s EVs are far better than > the > models sold a decade ago, but the costs are still high and infrastructure > is > still being developed. In the next two or three years, there may only be a > few tens of thousands of EVs produced and sold around the world, but this > period will allow for a much bigger expansion of markets toward the middle > of the decade. By 2015, there is a good chance of EVs and plug-in hybrids > becoming cost-competitive (or nearly so if including subsidies) with > conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles. > > The reason EVs ... get lambasted or unequivocally praised is that we are > tempted to look for a silver bullet to our energy security, economic, and > environmental problems. Yet there is no need for a zero-sum game. Whichever > advanced vehicle technology we pursue, at some point we cannot get better > efficiencies or lower CO2 emissions from conventional gasoline and diesel > cars. Even hybrids will have trouble reaching below 90 grams of CO2/km. In > contrast, plug-in hybrids could go under 90 grams of CO2/km and full > electric vehicles could reach well below 50 grams of CO2/km in areas with > clean electricity. Either way, we need to make a sound investment, and > electric vehicles are a far sounder investment than the cost of doing > nothing. > > The widespread deployment of EVs will take time. The Electric Vehicles > Initiative, a coalition of 15 key countries, together has set a target of > over 20 million EVs on the road by 2020. This is achievable, but even this > will just be a small share (about 2%) of the world’s cars at that point. > But > it will set the stage for EVs to play an increasingly important role after > 2020, and especially by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) > projects > that EVs could account for 15% of the world’s vehicle fleet by 2030 and > over > one half by 2050. But we have to start somewhere. > > Besides EVs, there are other promising alternative vehicle configurations, > but what is clear is that EVs offer promise by virtue of their energy > efficiency, relying on existing infrastructure, and can be considered > desirable high-tech consumer products, all of which together makes these > vehicles one of the likeliest technological solutions to lowering CO2 > emissions in the transport sector in the next 40 years. However, improving > conventional fuel economy and better urban planning and public transit > options should be higher near-term priorities in the next 10 to 20 years. > These parallel challenges can and need to be achieved, but not at the > expense of the broader goal: ensuring reliable, affordable, low-carbon > transport. > > The promise of an EV is beyond replacing one vehicle type with another; > rather EVs offer a clean solution in the near-term as cities try to > understand how to best reduce congestion and local air pollution. Car > sharing, two-way interactions with the electricity grid, and fleet > economies > are but three reasons for why the value proposition of EVs is greater than > that of yet another hyped vehicle technology ... > > Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this post are the responsibility of > its authors and do not in any way reflect those of another organization ... > The views expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those > of > Scientific American. > [© 2013 Scientific American All Rights Reserved] > > > > > For all EVLN posts use: > > http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/template/NamlServlet.jtp?macro=search_page&node=413529&query=evln&sort=date > > Here are today's archive-only EV posts: > > EVLN: Chip Gribben started off as a normal electric-car geek > EVLN: The Electric Generation, A Bipartisan Effort > EVLN: "ICE shaming" publicly embarrass illegally parked ice drivers > EVLN: Zap being zapped, locked doors, showroom dark & empty > + > EVLN: Electric Leaf safari across the wilds of Dartmoor > > > {brucedp.150m.com} > > > > -- > View this message in context: > http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-EVs-have-been-under-siege-in-the-media-for-over-two-years-tp4661561.html > Sent from the Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list archive at > Nabble.com. > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > > -- Remember, it is not that the glass is half empty, in reality, the glass is merely twice the size that it needs to be! -TNT'82 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... 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