# Re: [EVDL] \$1.7 Trillion reinvested

```Big mistake! (I knew something was wrong).

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US peak in 2012 was 1,000,000MW (not 1000MW). So, total build-out cost would be \$7.5T. Ok, that exceeds the challenge.
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How about just looking at coal?

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US peak in 2012 (same table) was about 300,000MW. The build-out to replace coal would be:
```    300,000MW * (\$7,500M/1000MW) = 300 * \$7,500M = \$2,250,000M = \$2.25T.

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That's not so far off the challenge. So we could replace 75% of US coal power plants! Who-hoo! That would pretty much eliminate the pundits' claim that EVs simply displace the CO2 output.
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Peri

------ Original Message ------
From: "Peri Hartman" <pe...@kotatko.com>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <ev@lists.evdl.org>
Sent: 26-Jun-14 8:20:44 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] \$1.7 Trillion reinvested

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```Here's a parallel way to look at it, except with wind generation:

According to the US DOE, in table 1:
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/capitalcost/pdf/updated_capcost.pdf

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the cost to build a wind farm is \$2213/kW to build + \$40/kW-yr to operate. Add to that pumped storage of the same capacity: \$5288/kW to build + \$14.13/kW-yr to operate and you would have about \$7500/kW to build + about \$54/kW-yr to operate.
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\$1.7T would build 226,000,000kW or

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The US used about 1000MW peak during summer of 2012 - see table 4.2.B in
```http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_02.html

To build out with 100% wind, that would cost:
wind generation = \$7500/kW to build or \$7500k / MW to build
1000MW would cost 1000 * \$7500k = \$7,500,000k = \$7,500M = \$7.5B

That's about 0.4% of the \$1.7T.

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In other words, we could completely replace our existing power generation with zero-carbon production and have plenty of money left over for operations, hyper-quick chargers everywhere, and just about every other government expense conceivable!
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By the way, you can do the math, but wind is substantially cheaper than building nukes if you include the operating costs of nukes.
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(ok, now who wants to vet my math? I make lots of mistakes :)

Peri

------ Original Message ------
From: "Peter Eckhoff via EV" <ev@lists.evdl.org>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <ev@lists.evdl.org>
Sent: 26-Jun-14 4:32:21 AM
Subject: [EVDL] \$1.7 Trillion reinvested

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The purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been \$1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12).Whether this is war was worth it is **not** up for discussion here. This is strictly an exercise in examining what effect those funds would have had if applied differently. I would appreciate your vetting the thoughts and numbers below.
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The question is: "What if those funds had been used for installing solar panels for recharging a fleet of electric vehicles?" What does a “back of the envelope” set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further?
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Assume for discussion purposes:

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1)Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref: http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts).The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2.
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2)Each panel costs \$1250 installed which is \$5/watt for a commercially installed panel. Some will self install and some will have a higher commercially installed array.
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3)Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day.This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all.The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions.Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater.
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(Ref: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1961-1990/redbook/atlas)
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4)How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.?

·Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles.

·Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles.

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·A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr.
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·A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average

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To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so:
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_\$1.7 x 10^12 _* _250w panel_ * _1 kw _* 1 hr * _2 kwhr sol m^2/day_ * _3 mi_
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\$1250 panel10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/daykwhr

This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles.

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How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan?
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Assume for discussion purposes:

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1)The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD).In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD.
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2)Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline.This is close to the actual production figure.
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To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so:
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20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day
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We drive roughly 7.200 billion miles per day.

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21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles driven per day produces a rough factor of 3 (x10^-3).If we multiply 2.04 billion electric only miles driven times this factor, we would equate this to using about 6 million BOPD.This is roughly the amount of our oil imports.
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While a \$1.7 trillion dollar investment in solar panels will not be a substitute for all the oil we use, it would likely reduce our energy consumption by 6 million BOPD; enough for us to be ‘energy independent’ with maybe a little conservation added.
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How long would it take to pay this investment off?

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If electricity, through net metering, is \$1.00 per 10 kwhr and gasoline is \$4 per gallon, and a vehicle can be driven the same amount of miles on either 10 kwhr of electricity or 1 gallon of gasoline, the difference is \$3.00 which would be allocated to paying off the \$1.7 trillion dollar investment.
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We use 360 million gallons of gasoline a day, (20 million BOPD * 18 gallons/Barrel).\$1.7 x 10^12/(0.360 gallons x 10^9 * 3) = 1.574 x 10^3 days or 4.31 years.Not too shabby.
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This is a very simplistic scenario where a lot of details and other costs that have to be worked out such as the cost of a pack; electrical storage, production, and transmission issues; (in)efficiency issues; weather related issues (the sun does not always shine); and utility regulatory/business issues.The bottom line is that this looks like it is doable financially with potentially solvable issues.
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