Everyone's jaw has dropped seeing the number of orders for Tesla's model
3, at 250000 as of saturday night. I thought it would be interesting to
see how that projects into the percentage of EVs sold in U.S. compared
to total vehicles sold.
I looked up a few numbers. If you look at only passenger vehicles,
there were 7.7M sold in 2015. If you include light truck, that number
bumps up to 17.3M. Out of that, 114000 pure EVs were sold. That comes
to 1.4% or 0.7%, depending on which total you choose.
For comparison, in 2014, total cars was 7.9M, total light vehicles was
16.4M, and total EVs was 119000. Percentage of EVs sold was 1.5% or
0.7%, about the same as 2015.
So, what happens if you throw in Tesla's model 3? Your guess is a good
as mine when deciding how to distribute those orders of 250000. For
now, let's just say the whole quantity applies to 2016 (I know, they
will ship in 2017 and beyond). Lets assume that, without the Model 3,
the 2016 total EV sales would be about the same as 2015, or 114000.
Adding in the Model 3, that number jumps to 364000. And the percentage
of EVs sold jumps to 4.7% or 2.1%, depending on which total you
consider. Wow !
To me, that's amazing. We could very well say that, for 2016, 5% of
passenger vehicles sold will be EVs ! Not main stream yet but the trend
is happening.
Here are some sources for the numbers I found.
http://electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952
http://www.autoalliance.org/auto-marketplace/sales-data
http://www.statista.com/statistics/199974/us-car-sales-since-1951/
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ALTSALES
Peri
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