So far, everything about what Trump will do is speculation. He has said
everything and yet said nothing. While I doubt I will find his policies
resemble anything favorable to EVs, I think he realizes he can't
unilaterally control congress. Campaigning is a game which, evidently,
he is very good at. Being president is another. And many in congress are
concerned about getting reelected in two years with an overall
constituency roughly split 50-50 between dems and repubs. Nothing is
obvious at this point.
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "tomw via EV" <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Cc:
Sent: 12-Nov-16 10:15:53 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Automakers lobby for "relief" from EVs
Trump has said many things. He said Saudi Arabia should give the U.S.
free
oil for 10 years. He also plans to open more public lands for fossil
fuel
extraction. Which refiners are going to pay for
more-expensive-to-produce
oil from fracking when Saudia Arabia is giving them oil? He said he
will
place tariffs on imports to protect American jobs. What about
companies and
their employees who use some of those imports in producing their
products?
It is well-known that tariffs benefit some while hurting others. Life
is
obviously not as simple as he portrays it. I think we may be about to
receive a large scale lesson in that.
As for crushing cars, that's nonsense. And all the rhetoric in the
world
doesn't change the facts that (1) "tight oil" from shale is just a
flash in
the pan, due to very high production decline rates, (2) kerogen, or
"oil
shale" (not "shale oil" which is tight oil) has been worked on for at
least
20 years and never proved to be economic to produce, (3) despite record
increases by oil companies in investment in exploration, discoveries of
new
oil fields have declined over the last decade and most conventional oil
fields are in decline, meaning production from them is decreasing.
That's
why they have been moving into natural gas fracking. But the oil
companies
are not going to tell the public that any more than Trump is going to
admit
that he lies and grossly oversimplifies. They will bluff as long as
they
can. Eventually it will become obvious to everyone that oil supply is
shrinking as demand increases due to the resulting increasing prices.
No
one knows when the latter will exceed the former, but even the most
optimistic fossil fuel cheerleader, Daniel Yergin of CERA who has along
history of erroneously optimistic prognostications, says it will likely
be
within 20-30 years. That's a lot longer than 2 presidential terms
though...
If we wait until demand is starting to exceed supply it will of course
be
far too late. It takes generations to make such huge transitions in
energy
supply and transportation, and you need the unrivaled energy density of
fossil fuels to help make that transition. There is no doubt we will
be
making some large transitions in the future. The question is only when
and
how effectively. But the only question in the minds of fossil fuel
company
CEOs and their ilk is who is going to control the money and the power,
and
that is what politics is all about.
And then there is climate change. It's going to be interesting times,
as
the curse goes.
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